![]() Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to ~ 50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon – Type 1, Kalutara lagoon – Type 2, and Maha Oya river – Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka.Īfter successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D, to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world.
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